Don't think the Internet bubble of 1999-2000 scared all investors away from hyperinflated Internet stocks. I'm thinking of for instance Google, currently trading at $660 per share. Alright, down a good bit from the top of $742 two weeks ago, but still dizzyingly high at a price/earnings of about 52. This means that if they manage to keep their earnings as high as now and give all of their earnings back to their shareholders (which they of course don't), it would take about 52 years for a shareholder to get his money back in dividend. Now, what if earnings start dropping, with a recession coming on? Other Internet bubble stocks right now are Amazon, with a price/earnings of about 93 (!) and Yahoo, with a price/earnings of about 50. Price/earnings this high of course means that the markets expect the earnings to increase, but just how many more advertisers want to advertise with Google or Yahoo? Or are they going to pay more for advertising there? And how many more books and CDs can Amazon sell per year? Or are they going to take higher profit margins on each sold book?
For comparison, Microsoft and Cisco both have a p/e of 22, which is still considered to be on the high side. How long would you like to wait to get your invested money back? 22 years? Make that 10 and it starts to sound like a reasonable investment.
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